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05-Oct-2020 09:18

It can lead to missed opportunities and poor decision making.Below, we outline five psychological biases that are common in business decision making.Psychologists Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky introduced the concept of psychological bias in the early 1970s.They published their findings in their 1982 book, "Judgment Under Uncertainty." They explained that psychological bias – also known as cognitive bias – is the tendency to make decisions or take action in an illogical way.In a 2000 study, researchers found that entrepreneurs are more likely to display the overconfidence bias than the general population.They can fail to spot the limits to their knowledge, so they perceive less risk. Consider the following questions: With the gambler's fallacy, you expect past events to influence the future. If you toss a coin and get heads seven times consecutively, you might assume that there's a higher chance that you'll toss tails the eighth time.Your four previous investments did well, and you plan to make a new, much larger one, because you see a pattern of success. The number of successes that you've had previously has only a small bearing on the future.A 2008 study reported at gambler's fallacy was less likely to happen when decision makers avoided looking at information chronologically.

(If someone is pressing aggressively for a decision, this can be a sign that the thing they're pushing for is against your best interests.) Read our article on the Ladder of Inference to find out more about the stages of thinking that people tend to go through when they make good decisions.So, to avoid gambler's fallacy, make sure that you look at trends from a number of angles.



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